IS OUR MARKET LIKE A BASEBALL GAME?
Something I noticed a long time ago: luxury real estate is a bit like a baseball game — nothing happens, nothing happens, nothing happens, and then ALL OF A SUDDEN everything happens at once!
The national housing market is showing signs of stress not seen in more than a decade. Locally, we are hearing from multiple escrow officers, realtors, and sellers that more and more deals are falling out of escrow, offers are coming in much lower than expected, or properties are simply not getting shown. BUT as is always the case in Montecito and Santa Barbara, demand remains robust, and the numbers are not the whole story!
THE BIG PICTURE
Cancellations on the Rise
Nearly 1 in 6 home purchases nationwide fell out of contract last month. Locally, more and more buyers are pumping the brakes — either waiting to sell their existing home before committing to a purchase or deciding they don’t need to buy right now. In just the last couple of weeks, we’ve had two deals stall because buyers were concerned about selling their current properties first, and several others who expressed interest in our listings have postponed making offers, feeling little sense of urgency.
Price Pressure Ahead
Across the board, we’re seeing homes come off the market and re-listed at lower prices, OR take significant reductions ranging anywhere from 10%–20%+ off the original list price. For perspective, before COVID, it was common to see “aspirational” pricing at the very high end, with sales ultimately closing 20% or more below asking. Since 2022, appreciation has normalized to a more typical 2%–4% per year, though many sellers are still pricing as if 10%–15% annual gains are the norm. Homes that sold at premiums during COVID and have since returned to market are also struggling to achieve their previous sale price. All of this adds to uncertainty and contributes to today’s slower pace.
What this means for Montecito & Santa Barbara
Luxury markets like Santa Barbara are more insulated, but not immune. Dramatic headlines, consumer confidence, equity markets, and lending conditions all work on the psyche of buyers, even here. With 11 new listings coming on in Montecito just last week, we’re seeing fresh opportunities open up for both buyers and sellers. The key is perspective: by staying attuned to national headwinds while tracking local momentum, we can act decisively and strategically in a market that continues to stand apart.
What Happened in Montecito Last Week?
August 24th – August 30th
weekly spotlight
Light of My Life
150 Cedar Lane | Montecito
$4,850,000
Stunning ocean, harbor and city views frame this impeccable 5-bedroom home defined by quality and exquisite craftsmanship. Thoughtful millwork and natural light enhance the spacious floor plan, creating an inviting connection to the outdoors.
Cedar Lane offers coastal charm, vibrant traditions, and the quiet joy of living well — an invitation to embrace the good life at every stage.
