How’s Your market?
That’s the real question — there isn’t just one market and the headlines won’t tell you what you want to know about the market for you.
Luxury residential real estate is a mix of micro-markets defined by location, price point, inventory, and timing. From a $2M buyer in Santa Barbara to a $7M seller in Montecito or a land investor in Hope Ranch, every corner of the market tells a different story. Let’s go behind the scenes and break it down.
Big Picture
Across South Santa Barbara County, prices have shown steady upward momentum. The average sale price in 2025 is over $3M, with the median sitting just under $2M, both up year-over-year. This isn’t an anomaly, it’s part of a 35-year trend of long-term appreciation with one significant dip in 2008.
Montecito
Buyers continue to pay a premium for turnkey, well-located homes. Sellers who price in line with today’s market are seeing good results, sometimes with multiple offers. That said, buyers are cautious and value and presentation matter.
- YTD 2025 average price: $6.6M
- YTD 2025 median price: $5.65M
- Price Growth: Median price is up 5% compared to last year
Hope Ranch
A handful of strong sales pushed prices higher at the top of the Hope Ranch market, reflecting renewed confidence in the area’s long-term appeal.
- YTD 2025 average price: $7.94M
- YTD 2025 median price: $7.25M
- Both figures are up nearly 20% from last year.
Sales Volume
Looking at resale activity county-wide, 2025 is tracking close to 2024, with May showing 125 total transactions, which is slightly off from previous years.
What does this Mean for You?
SELLING? Today’s buyers are selective. Pricing with precision and presenting your home at its absolute best isn’t optional, it’s what gets results.
BUYING? The right opportunity is out there, but it takes timing, neighborhood insight, and the ability to move when it counts.
ON THE FENCE? This market rewards clarity. Real estate isn’t one-size-fits-all. Your next move should be based on your goals, your timing, and your property.
weekly spotlight
Birnam Wood Contemporary
Defined by clean lines, lush landscaping and intoxicating mountain views, this reimagined estate is a masterclass in modern Montecito living behind the gates at Birnam Wood. South-facing and perfectly sited, the 4 bedroom main residence plus a studio spans nearly three-quarters of an acre. Explore more here.