The 5-Year Home Price Rule: Why Time Beats Timing
If recent headlines about price drops have you questioning the market, it’s time to zoom out.
Yes, there are short-term fluctuations — but the long-term trend is clear: home values go up. Real estate rewards time in the market. If you're planning to stay for 5+ years, you're likely to ride out any dips and benefit from the gains.
Zooming Out: Why the 5-Year Rule Works
Most people remember the Great Recession because it was the exception not the rule. Outside of major events, overall home prices have risen almost every year since 1978, even in markets seeing small corrections now, values are still way up compared to 2020. Let's take a look at what is happening locally.
MONTECITO
- Year to Date 2025 Average Price: $7.4M
- Year to Date 2025 Median Price: $6.4M
- Both are up 9% from 2024
- Since 2020, Montecito prices are up nearly 50% on average
- 26% of homes throughout Santa Barbara sold above list price in June 2025
- Even with higher inventory this year, the right homes are still commanding attention and competitive offers
HOPE RANCH
- 2025 Year to Date Average Price: $7.36M
- +16.4% from 2024
- 2025 Year to Date Median Price: $6.3M
- +3.0% from 2024
- Since 2020, average prices in Hope Ranch have climbed nearly 49%
Yes, inventory is growing. But if you're buying smart and staying put, you're building long-term wealth.
What Happened in Montecito Last Week?
July 20th – July 26th
weekly spotlight
Butterflies Alive!
A vibrant evening in support of the Santa Barbara Natural History Museum, filled with good company, great food, and a deeper appreciation for butterflies, insects, and the natural world. This incredible institution is a cornerstone of our community, championing conservation, childhood education, and the unique beauty of Santa Barbara.
